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Post by TILTON on Mar 24, 2024 0:11:48 GMT
Had to laugh when I saw this story. Always cracks me up the sheer lack of football knowledge knocking about...............................Decide to copy and paste the line of interest. "Selling players like Tyler Roberts and Emmanuel Longelo can generate revenue and make room for new signings to enhance the squad" How the hell do they propose revenue from these pair? Right now I would be happy for these pair to leave for £100k between them in the summer. Toilet has spent most the season injured or running around like a headless chicken and when finally being presented with chances missing them in style. Meanwhile Longelo is like the original headless chicken!
footballleagueworld.co.uk/how-birmingham-citys-dream-summer-transfer-window-could-look/
Moving on sorry to start the 'R' word discussion. When I looked through the players that will remain in contract post season sadly the maths on the total wage for these is well over £10m+ when you add staff, academy staff and players plus the running of the club then I would say the absolute lowest our wage bill will be is around £18m+ This is before we even embark on making any additions we are very likely to be significantly above the 60% threshold allowed in that division I can't bare to mention. Effectively we could start under embargo and signing dog shit players to replace outgoing dog shit players!
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 24, 2024 6:30:25 GMT
Amazingly, there are some who still believe that relegation would not be such a bad thing. Some even think it might be a good thing 🫤 I wrote on here after the Watford game that I put our chances of surviving at only 60/40. Just checked Opta and they also agree. theanalyst.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/championship-relegation-chances.pngEdit: Our chances were 80/20 before those 2 home defeats. Opta also thinks 50 points will just be enough, possibly then on GD.
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Post by brightside on Mar 24, 2024 9:55:05 GMT
Had to laugh when I saw this story. Always cracks me up the sheer lack of football knowledge knocking about...............................Decide to copy and paste the line of interest. "Selling players like Tyler Roberts and Emmanuel Longelo can generate revenue and make room for new signings to enhance the squad" How the hell do they propose revenue from these pair? Right now I would be happy for these pair to leave for £100k between them in the summer. Toilet has spent most the season injured or running around like a headless chicken and when finally being presented with chances missing them in style. Meanwhile Longelo is like the original headless chicken!
footballleagueworld.co.uk/how-birmingham-citys-dream-summer-transfer-window-could-look/
Moving on sorry to start the 'R' word discussion. When I looked through the players that will remain in contract post season sadly the maths on the total wage for these is well over £10m+ when you add staff, academy staff and players plus the running of the club then I would say the absolute lowest our wage bill will be is around £18m+ This is before we even embark on making any additions we are very likely to be significantly above the 60% threshold allowed in that division I can't bare to mention. Effectively we could start under embargo and signing dog shit players to replace outgoing dog shit players! It’s 75% of income for the first season. But I agree with your general point and how sh@t Roberts finishing is. as for selling any of them two, we couldn’t give them away
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Post by TILTON on Mar 24, 2024 10:59:23 GMT
Actually yeah I re-googled the question by typing in when relegated. 75% is still tough though. My estimate with the new TV deal and the sponsorship/commercial income changes I would say next season in the championship I would be shocked if we can't get our turnover in the championship to perhaps £35m. Pretty sure the lack of better TV income would put us on £22m to £25m at best in League one. Luckily the new TV deal including loads of streaming lower league games means we will have a chance of watching us away next season as the big worry was you'd have no chance of watching us play. Gate revenue with a price drop and numbers drop we will end up lucky to make £3m through the gate as well. Even if revenue is £25m then we are still looking at a wage bill of £18.75m although not sure what portion of this is not included in FFP for 'wages'? I dare say what will help us is if Rotherham, Plymouth, Blackburn or QPR are two of those who went with! and Pompey, Derby and Barnsley are those that go up then you have to deal with clubs on their arse coming down and not many big hurdles staying down. You'd imagine Wrexham would be a force next season but I would be happy competing with the likes of Lincoln, Stevenage, Exeter and Wycombe being in the £4m wage bill territory and the average down there being not much more it gives you a chance to bounce back in season one but you simply have to get it right! DEPRESSING SUBJECT AINT IT!!! We have to be realistic though. To be honest if I was the club right now I would be agreeing free agent signings now with players who are free to sign, Poveda in particular would blow league one away! You can then say to EFL we didn't believe we'd go down when we signed them What a sobering discussion for an international break
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Post by almajir on Mar 24, 2024 13:30:44 GMT
FYI there are exclusions in the SCMP for long term contracts signed prior to relegation.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 24, 2024 15:01:24 GMT
Maybe the bomb squad will want relegation so they will get extensions
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Post by bubba on Mar 24, 2024 15:46:59 GMT
Also as already mentioned before in the lower two divisions, owners can simply inject funds directly into their clubs and have it count as revenue which changes everything incluing wage bill limits.
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Post by BillyNoMatesformerlyTheMadFrog on Mar 24, 2024 20:48:42 GMT
We need a new team they'll only be 4 players left and the tea lady when we come back next season.
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Post by bubba on Mar 24, 2024 21:57:53 GMT
Depends on how much money they chuck at it, how big a wage bill we carry and whether Jude want to play league one at this stage of his career.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 24, 2024 23:58:52 GMT
merged
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Post by bluenoserob on Mar 25, 2024 7:31:18 GMT
You would of course have to take on board exactly how many of the players we are hoping to sign would actually want to sign for a division 1 club, when they are also getting offers from championship clubs. Not many methinks.
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Post by choc on Mar 25, 2024 8:55:09 GMT
You would of course have to take on board exactly how many of the players we are hoping to sign would actually want to sign for a division 1 club, when they are also getting offers from championship clubs. Not many methinks. But don't worry. We will be the Man City of league one. 🙄
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Post by TILTON on Mar 25, 2024 9:39:55 GMT
The players who won’t get deals from championship clubs in reality would struggle to get deals from League One clubs. If they did they would be lucky to get £3k a week.
They probably have more chance of getting more with us.
To be honest if we go down and you told me we could keep a few of them on £5k a week for one more year and it’s easier due to restrictions to sign them then I would say yes in most cases.
I believe Dean is on a pittance at Reading and it was his only offer.
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Post by bubba on Mar 25, 2024 16:58:46 GMT
You would of course have to take on board exactly how many of the players we are hoping to sign would actually want to sign for a division 1 club, when they are also getting offers from championship clubs. Not many methinks. But don't worry. We will be the Man City of league one. 🙄 Ipswich didn't need to be the Man City of league one to sign players like Leif Davis, Harry Clarke and Nathan Broadhead who were all excellent and continued to be a division higher this season, glass half full.
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Post by Professor Frink on Mar 25, 2024 17:09:30 GMT
But don't worry. We will be the Man City of league one. 🙄 Ipswich didn't need to be the Man City of league one to sign players like Leif Davis, Harry Clarke and Nathan Broadhead who were all excellent and continued to be a division higher this season, glass half full. its exactly this. Look at whos come out of that league - since we have been floating around at the bottom of the championship Wolves Brighton Brentford Sheff U Bournemouth Luton Ipswich Sunderland All sides that are in a way better position than our squad is in right now. Even Derby who were in a right mess a couple of years ago are back competing at the right end of that table Yes relegation would be a significant step backwards, but i dont view it as the catastrophe that people make it out to be.
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Post by bubba on Mar 25, 2024 18:00:00 GMT
Yep, Southampton too came up the year we went down and went on to the prem.
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Post by choc on Mar 25, 2024 18:28:43 GMT
Yep, Southampton too came up the year we went down and went on to the prem. And there is quite a few that are still stuck in league one. Possibly 3 coming up, but how long have they been there. Our ownership want premier league football. If we go down that's a minimum of 2 more seasons to get to the promised land and that's a big ask. If we stay up and rebuild then it's feasible we could do it next season. Relegation would be a complete disaster.
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 25, 2024 19:17:35 GMT
Yep, Southampton too came up the year we went down and went on to the prem. And there is quite a few that are still stuck in league one. Possibly 3 coming up, but how long have they been there. Our ownership want premier league football. If we go down that's a minimum of 2 more seasons to get to the promised land and that's a big ask. If we stay up and rebuild then it's feasible we could do it next season. Relegation would be a complete disaster. 100% this. Last time we were relegated to the third tier, coincidentally under new owners, it took EIGHT seasons to reach the promised land. Not a gamble I would like to take.
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Post by thesauce16 on Mar 25, 2024 21:05:30 GMT
Are relegation wage drop clauses not a thing? I would hope most of those signed post covid would have such clauses?!
Relegation is unlikely to be fun, or pretty… but it’s not the death sentence it could have been. There could be the opportunity to rebuild, and I think there is a solid core of a team which could be very good at that level. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it would necessarily be a good thing. But it could provide a good opportunity to rebuild. Sando, Laird, Buchanan, Hall, Roberts, Bacca are all players I suspect would be unlikely to leave, and would be very good at that level!
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Post by bubba on Mar 26, 2024 10:28:58 GMT
Yep, Southampton too came up the year we went down and went on to the prem. And there is quite a few that are still stuck in league one. Possibly 3 coming up, but how long have they been there. Our ownership want premier league football. If we go down that's a minimum of 2 more seasons to get to the promised land and that's a big ask. If we stay up and rebuild then it's feasible we could do it next season. Relegation would be a complete disaster.
Quite a few? Big city clubs of comparable size with good owners?
Pompey and Bolton both went into admin and were near destroyed by shitty owners, Derby similar and even then in just their second season down there look on course to come back up so you're not comparing apples with apples anyway. It's one of those football tropes that clubs going down get stuck down there for years. Big clubs seldom do for long and when that trend is bucked it's usually because they have shit/incompetent/fraudulent owners. Can it happen? Of course. Is it very likely under these owners? No it's not.
I'm here all week.
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Post by bubba on Mar 26, 2024 10:53:56 GMT
Just gone back 15 years, stripping out clubs that weren't nearly destroyed by shitty owners or in dispute with shitty owners and homeless (cov) these were the only remotely comparable clubs that got 'stuck' down there
Southampton - 2 years Sheff Weds - 2 years Sunderland - 4 years Ipswich - 4 years Sheff Utd - 5 years
Not worth even talking about the first two. Sunderland and Ipswich were both amongst the most heavily indebted clubs in the championship when suffering relegation (Ipswich from memory about 150 million and Sunderland not far off) and believe both have gone through two ownership changes to get back to the championship so not the most stable of environments.
Sheff Utd I'm not sure about their circumstances, even so as detailed there are almost always extenuating circumstancces why big city clubs can occasionally get stuck down there more than a year or two, but that doesn't apply to blues, we'll come straght back up, no doubt in my mind whatsoever.
I should point out I'm not wishing for it, I want us to stay up but if the worst happens it'll just make the journey a year longer, no problem and it certainly won't be a disaster, BSH aren't driving the bus anymore.
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Post by royalblue on Mar 26, 2024 11:20:34 GMT
Relegation is as welcome as a fart in a space suit but it would not be the end of the world. I don’t buy the ‘go down and rebuild’ argument. It’s little more than a rationalisation and a poor man’s cope. Staying up is very important but if we don’t then our owners will get us back up I have not the slightest doubt. I would point out that is not a view that should be conflated with thinking that relegation would be a good thing or not damaging but it would be recoverable and within a season in my view.
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Post by thesauce16 on Mar 26, 2024 11:34:59 GMT
Relegation is as welcome as a fart in a space suit but it would not be the end of the world. I don’t buy the ‘go down and rebuild’ argument. It’s little more than a rationalisation and a poor man’s cope. Staying up is very important but if we don’t then our owners will get us back up I have not the slightest doubt. I would point out that is not a view that should be conflated with thinking that relegation would be a good thing or not damaging but it would be recoverable and within a season in my view. A rebuild of some description will be inevitable, whether we stay up or go down. We need a keeper, centre backs and strikers in either case. If we go down, you can add centre mids to that too. It will obviously affect the quality we can attract. Stay up and we’ll be able to attract some ‘oven ready’ top end champ players, go down and it’ll be league 1 experience and potential we’ll be after.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 26, 2024 12:52:45 GMT
You can be the richest club in that league it doesn’t guarantee success.
Look at Sheff Wed they had the highest non automatic promotion tally that has probably ever been recorded and they squeezed through at Wembley.
United spent about a billion since Fergie left to be worse than at any point in the last 20 years.
Yeah money helps but shit can still happen.
Anyone seeing this as the great reset has probably never seen it or was too young to remember have god awful life is down there.
Still remember every team coming to St Andrews and parking it and every away game they all seen us as a scalp and raised their game.
There’s some talent in our squad but they have no bollox and I don’t see the current lot stomping all over league one.
There won’t be a spend up of sorts either. They simply can’t risk blowing loads then being slapped with points deduction on return to championship as you’ll be in a terrible loop.
We’ve all seen St Andrews with crowds of 16,000 to 20,000 and it’s a bit tepid and creates a poor atmosphere. They probably couldn’t give away seats and many of older generation may think it’s one set back too much and suddenly we playing in front of 12,000 to 16,000 crowds.
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Post by choc on Mar 26, 2024 14:02:06 GMT
Just gone back 15 years, stripping out clubs that weren't nearly destroyed by shitty owners or in dispute with shitty owners and homeless (cov) these were the only remotely comparable clubs that got 'stuck' down there
Southampton - 2 years Sheff Weds - 2 years Sunderland - 4 years Ipswich - 4 years Sheff Utd - 5 years
Not worth even talking about the first two. Sunderland and Ipswich were both amongst the most heavily indebted clubs in the championship when suffering relegation (Ipswich from memory about 150 million and Sunderland not far off) and believe both have gone through two ownership changes to get back to the championship so not the most stable of environments.
Sheff Utd I'm not sure about their circumstances, even so as detailed there are almost always extenuating circumstancces why big city clubs can occasionally get stuck down there more than a year or two, but that doesn't apply to blues, we'll come straght back up, no doubt in my mind whatsoever.
I should point out I'm not wishing for it, I want us to stay up but if the worst happens it'll just make the journey a year longer, no problem and it certainly won't be a disaster, BSH aren't driving the bus anymore.
A year longer. Are you sure😮 There is are no guarantees that we will be promoted the first season. The squad we have now wouldn't make promotion IMO. We would need to build for L1 and that won't be an easy thing.
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Post by Professor Frink on Mar 26, 2024 14:27:24 GMT
I look back at the season under Barry Fry and the dildo brothers, perhaps with rose tinted specs - but look at that as a similar scenario.
Relegated to league 1, a massive rebuild but a successful campaign. Yes it took longer to get up into the prem than they would have expected but i dont see that as any different as to where we are today really. Either way we still need a massive rebuild
As blues fans we are used to the worst happening to us, and expect that to be compounded with more bad things.
Thats understandable, but i really dont fear it. If it happens, it happens. The world will keep turning and we have owners who have an intention to build this club upwards
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Post by bubba on Mar 26, 2024 19:53:56 GMT
A year longer. Are you sure😮 There is are no guarantees that we will be promoted the first season. The squad we have now wouldn't make promotion IMO. We would need to build for L1 and that won't be an easy thing.
Well I've stated that I think if we go down we'll come straight back up but am I sure? Unfortunately clairvoyance isn't currently in my skillset so I can't give guarantees, are you sure that we won't?
I honestly don't understand the needing to build for div one thing, imo you just build a better side than everybody else and win more games. Lower division clubs raise their game in the cups against higher opposition and yeah shocks happen but most of the time if fielding anything near a full strength side the better team wins and they don't do it by resorting to agricultural football but just by being much better. I don't really get all the mystique and perceived wisdom about tackling the lower divisions either, the teams that get promoted each year by and large are the best teams, t'was ever thus.
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Post by choc on Mar 26, 2024 21:06:11 GMT
A year longer. Are you sure😮 There is are no guarantees that we will be promoted the first season. The squad we have now wouldn't make promotion IMO. We would need to build for L1 and that won't be an easy thing.
Well I've stated that I think if we go down we'll come straight back up but am I sure? Unfortunately clairvoyance isn't currently in my skillset so I can't give guarantees, are you sure that we won't?
I honestly don't understand the needing to build for div one thing, imo you just build a better side than everybody else and win more games. Lower division clubs raise their game in the cups against higher opposition and yeah shocks happen but most of the time if fielding anything near a full strength side the better team wins and they don't do it by resorting to agricultural football but just by being much better. I don't really get all the mystique and perceived wisdom about tacklinthe mystique and perceived wisdom about tackling the lower divisions either, the teams that get promoted each year by and large are the best teams, t'was ever thus.
What I am sure about it would take a minimum of 2 more seasons, not 1, to get where the owners want us. We will have to build for L1 because we have so many players out of contract or on loan. This has been the biggest issue this season. This is why we are where we are. Would you want to chance your arm with any of this lot next season in what ever league we find ourselves in. The mystique doesn't exist. It's always been about having the best players and best manager to be successful in any game of football with an added chunk of luck.
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Post by bubba on Mar 26, 2024 21:56:20 GMT
Well I've stated that I think if we go down we'll come straight back up but am I sure? Unfortunately clairvoyance isn't currently in my skillset so I can't give guarantees, are you sure that we won't?
I honestly don't understand the needing to build for div one thing, imo you just build a better side than everybody else and win more games. Lower division clubs raise their game in the cups against higher opposition and yeah shocks happen but most of the time if fielding anything near a full strength side the better team wins and they don't do it by resorting to agricultural football but just by being much better. I don't really get all the mystique and perceived wisdom about tacklinthe mystique and perceived wisdom about tackling the lower divisions either, the teams that get promoted each year by and large are the best teams, t'was ever thus.
What I am sure about it would take a minimum of 2 more seasons, not 1, to get where the owners want us. We will have to build for L1 because we have so many players out of contract or on loan. This has been the biggest issue this season. This is why we are where we are. Would you want to chance your arm with any of this lot next season in what ever league we find ourselves in. The mystique doesn't exist. It's always been about having the best players and best manager to be successful in any game of football with an added chunk of luck. It will take a minimum of one more season as you say so the difference is one season? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
We will have to build for either division one or this division whatever happens and we actually had more players out of contract or on loan at the end of last season which tbf most people saw as a good thing and an opportunity to offload aging players on big contracts aswell as dead wood.
Chancing our arm with these players? Most if not all those out of contract won't be renewed and I'm fine with the vast majority that will remain, there are various reasons why they've underperformed this season, many of them not of the players' own making. I think there's some pretty talented players there that would be head and shoulders above 95% of their division one counterparts, which tbf should be the case if as I contend we're not really a bottom 3 side but on ability a mid table championship side. If we stay up then yes the quality of players replacing those out of contract wil need to be higher, aswell as a bit more regard given to the character of signings and how the character of the squad as a whole meaures up.
On a slightly side note but still very related, I truly believe in my soul that regardless of the managerial clown show this season ANY single one of the permanent managers this season would have had significantly better results had we acquired the centre forward we were right from the very start so clearly lacking. From the last few years you take out a Pukki, Toney, Gyokeres or Carlton Morris from their respective championship sides and put them in this blues squad and I think we'd have at the very least been top half and more than likely challenging top 6. Some teams can play without that focal point but not this squad, they needed it, they always needed it. They're not bad players but that lack of a proper athletic pacy focal point made it too easy for other teams to defend against us and stopped us being able to cut teams open the way several of our players are capable of playing if all the parts of the jigsaw are in place.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 27, 2024 7:47:07 GMT
Apart from the spanish experiment team I believe that we have had a 10th to 15th squad for a lot of the seasons where we have struggled.
Current squad is a shocker to see us where we are. I had us hovering 9th to 14th as a worst case scenario this season.
The board created the chaos. We may argue on Eustace but giving him 6 or 7 more games was a no brainer and appointing a more reliable manager would have avoided this shit. If they gave JE longer we could have skipped to Mowbray quicker although now with the medical situation who's to know but him coming in earlier puts us safe before the op.
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