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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 11:06:32 GMT
Seen several suggestions it'll take 53 or 54 points to stay up this season, aint gonna happen, anybody getting 50 or more will be plenty safe. A lot of these teams still got to play each other and some have very tough run ins.
Here's my final bottom 10.
15 CARD - 55
16 SWAN - 54
17 HUDD - 54
18 STOK - 52
19 PLYM -- 49
20 BLKB -- 49
21 Q.P.R -- 48
22 MILLW - 48
23 SHFW - 46
24 ROTH - 26
What's yours?
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 6, 2024 11:23:05 GMT
Stoke and Plymouth imo as I said before. And both will get 50 points.
Blues to get 56+ points then Bubbs?
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Post by choc on Mar 6, 2024 11:35:31 GMT
I think we will be 15th at best
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Post by Dirty White Slip-on on Mar 6, 2024 11:57:22 GMT
What need to see is how many points Blues get year on year from the final 10 games  56 points as stated by yourself is another 17 points from 11 games when we’ve accumulated 39 from 36 Some how the maths don’t work…….. unless there’s a new manager ? |
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 12:01:41 GMT
Stoke and Plymouth imo as I said before. And both will get 50 points. Blues to get 56+ points then Bubbs?
Well technically the suggested final table above doesn't guarantee any more than 55  but yes we will.  |
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 12:13:09 GMT
What need to see is how many points Blues get year on year from the final 10 games 56 points as stated by yourself is another 17 points from 11 games when we’ve accumulated 39 from 36 Some how the maths don’t work…….. unless there’s a new manager ?
yes but that 39 from 36 factors in the Rooney debacle, we've taken 11 points from 9 since then and those games included Southampton, Ipswich, WBA and Hull. Take those 4 top 6 sides out of the equation and we've picked up 10 in 5, title winning form Lies, damned lies and statistics as they say but only one top 6 side left in our last 11 games.
Want more? 3 of our last 5 away games are against the bottom 3 home teams in the division and win, lose or draw against Millwall 6 of our last 10 games are at home. To top it all what are the odds of getting a bit of 'new manager bounce' effect when Mogga returns?
Yeah, 56 points or more, nae bother.
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Post by bluenoserob on Mar 6, 2024 12:16:45 GMT
Seen several suggestions it'll take 53 or 54 points to stay up this season, aint gonna happen, anybody getting 50 or more will be plenty safe. A lot of these teams still got to play each other and some have very tough run ins.
Here's my final bottom 10.
15 CARD - 55
16 SWAN - 54
17 HUDD - 54
18 STOK - 52
19 PLYM -- 49
20 BLKB -- 49
21 Q.P.R -- 48
22 MILLW - 48
23 SHFW - 46
24 ROTH - 26
What's yours?
That’ll do for me Bubba. |
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Post by bluenoserob on Mar 6, 2024 12:17:51 GMT
Be worth hanging on to that to see how close you will get it.
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 12:24:49 GMT
Indeed, in theory it should be easier predicting from here with only 10/11 games left and with there unlikely to be manager changes from here than it is from the start of the season. The one wildcard is that it's so bloody close betwween so many teams but I'm increasingly confident now we'll pull away quite comfortably so long as we don't continue getting buggered by injuries and refs.
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 12:38:49 GMT
I don't know how much attention most of you pay to other team's performances, specifically performances rather than results but I do and Millwall have picked up 7 points in 3 games since Harris returned and on balance of play deserved to lose every one of them. So if you look at results they've had a new manager bounce but by performances they haven't, ie they've rode their luck. Doesn't guarantee us a result when we play them but I'd rather face them having a string of luck than playing other teams off the park. Blackburn were the better side against them and they've been in awful form forever.
I refuse to believe Sheff Weds can maintain that form, momentum is a wonderful thing and tbf they've deserved a lot of their recent wins but they've had to play like champions just to catch the pack up, it won't continue. Huddersfield are playing well, expect them to comfortably pull away, a new manager bounce that started even before the manager came in and they really are riding their momentum, a lot of energy, fight and pace is carrying them. Stoke just gave Leeds one of their toughest matches at Elland Road, they've underperformed all season but now and again they put enough together to suggest they shouldn't be involved in the final shake up down there, this one is a bit of a coin toss though. Plymouth have a new manager who has radically altered their playing style to be more pragmatic. In fairness they have picked up a few decent results in doing so, but I do wonder with 3 points for a win whether it wil ultimately see them get more or less points, jury is out for me on that one.
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 6, 2024 13:24:02 GMT
Blackburn is the interesting one, for more than the obvious reason.
Since Eustace took the reins no wins in 6. 4 draws and 2 defeats. That’s pure relegation form. But I’d say they’ve played better than that.
Technically now 7 games without a win under Eustace, their loss to the barcodes on penalties was unlucky. They had to come back from behind last night against Millwall, but from what I’ve seen a draw was probably the right result.
They’re not in the fight,, but the collapse of Sunderland since Mowbray was sacked has been spectacular.
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 13:51:01 GMT
Blackburn is the interesting one, for more than the obvious reason. Since Eustace took the reins no wins in 6. 4 draws and 2 defeats. That’s pure relegation form. But I’d say they’ve played better than that. Technically now 7 games without a win under Eustace, their loss to the barcodes on penalties was unlucky. They had to come back from behind last night against Millwall, but from what I’ve seen a draw was probably the right result. They’re not in the fight,, but the collapse of Sunderland since Mowbray was sacked has been spectacular.
As has Boro's and Watford's tbf with Cardiff not a lot better winning one drawing one and losing 5 until their last couple of games.
Boro, Watford and Sunderlnd all in bottom 5 for current form over last 6 games but you can stretch that to 10 games for Sunderlnd and they've only been better than Rotherham.
Interestingly Sunderland are the only team mentioned above who we don't still have to play.  |
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Post by TILTON on Mar 6, 2024 14:27:20 GMT
9 years ago Posh went down with 54 points why can’t that tally be repeated?
When I checked last 12 years or so I saw about two other seasons when 50+ was required. It’s a bit skewed by deductions but yeah 50 is normally plenty but not always.
What is worse is there’s far more involved than ever so the variables are un fathomable.
Bored of hearing win 4 home games we are safe because we expecting a team winning 7 from 17 is going to win 4 from 6!!
My view is we get 9 from last 6 as that is our 1.5 average so I would rather factor them 9 as achievable.
Yeah we have Rotherham away but why’s that different to everyone saying we’d beat Sheff Wed. We also go to QPR, MILLWALL & HUDDERSFIELD!
We are where we are because it’s where we deserve to be, two thirds of the season are gone.
I’m taking Sheff Wed and QPR out of the conversation as their form is not that of teams below 50 points.
The ones I am watching are all the others maybe up to Rovers.
Rovers have some shitty fixtures and Eustace will try drawing them all and could pay the price. Plymouth are falling fast. I dare say if Sunderland don’t get a manager in they are in shit. Dodds ain’t a manager.
In next 3 games a lot will be clearer as quite a few meet each other.
Lose at Millwall and choke Tuesday and we in serious trouble.
At present my bottom three
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Rotherham
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Post by bubba on Mar 6, 2024 14:46:04 GMT
Blackburn is the interesting one, for more than the obvious reason. Since Eustace took the reins no wins in 6. 4 draws and 2 defeats. That’s pure relegation form. But I’d say they’ve played better than that.
They've also got to play the entire top 4 in their last 10 games, that could be like them having 4 games less than some other sides, they'll go very close to going down imo if not actually dropping, think Johnny might have picked a lemon for his first job post blues.
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Post by gammo on Mar 6, 2024 16:19:17 GMT
If Middlesbrough lose tonight I think they will make a manager change ahead of playing us next week.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 6, 2024 18:10:22 GMT
The manager merry go round could still swing. Not sure they'll axe Carrick it's not been long since beating Leicester and they have a regime that's not massively sack happy and I'm not sure what standout candidates are out there for them. But yeah it'd just be our luck.
Could be they sack after losing to QPR as well?
Stoke have that hanging over theirs but I think only losing by 1 to Leeds and putting in a good performance keeps them ticking over maybe a couple more games.
Sunderland could change managers perhaps they would go for the Stoke boss if he gets canned, they have enough points to know they will land at 53 points without really trying.
Watford strangely still got theirs and he's lost 5 from 6 and the only result was beating Rotherham so we could face two consecutive change of manager teams!
When I saw Rovers fixtures I laughed my cock off!!
They face the top four and coventry. If they choke against Plymouth and Boro next two games they are in way deep!
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Post by jazzzy786 on Mar 7, 2024 18:52:09 GMT
The manager merry go round could still swing. Not sure they'll axe Carrick it's not been long since beating Leicester and they have a regime that's not massively sack happy and I'm not sure what standout candidates are out there for them. But yeah it'd just be our luck. Could be they sack after losing to QPR as well? Stoke have that hanging over theirs but I think only losing by 1 to Leeds and putting in a good performance keeps them ticking over maybe a couple more games. Sunderland could change managers perhaps they would go for the Stoke boss if he gets canned, they have enough points to know they will land at 53 points without really trying. Watford strangely still got theirs and he's lost 5 from 6 and the only result was beating Rotherham so we could face two consecutive change of manager teams! When I saw Rovers fixtures I laughed my cock off!!They face the top four and coventry. If they choke against Plymouth and Boro next two games they are in way deep! 🤣🤣🤣 |
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Post by expatjohn on Mar 8, 2024 1:43:39 GMT
When I saw Rovers fixtures I laughed my cock off!! The female population of the UK (and probably further afield when you are on your jollies) will be forever grateful. |
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56 points as stated by yourself is another 17 points from
but yes we will. 
