The Brexit Swindle

[Deleted]

Anyone else get the feeling a treaty is on the horizon.

I did say on day dot if we did leave it would be a big swizz!!!

It looks like May deal with some added fluff!!

There is a rumour that EU will agree a ratification period extension due to deal agreed in all but name but then try to force the confirmatory vote as part of the terms.

The deal agreed or remain!!!

And we all know brexiteers will simply not vote for either leaving remain the outright winner. I just hope Boris has an ace up his sleeve and it really is just a way of getting the general election.

[Deleted]

It’s not even Mays deal.......the EU offered the border in the Irish Sea before which may rejected......

The problem with brexit was that it was always going to fall apart once the Brexiters had to write the solution down on paper

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 17:44:19 GMT @bluenose68 said:

It’s not even Mays deal.......the EU offered the border in the Irish Sea before which may rejected......

The problem with brexit was that it was always going to fall apart once the Brexiters had to write the solution down on paper

Are you saying that Brexiteers can't write? 😂

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 16:00:15 GMT @kingtilton said:

Anyone else get the feeling a treaty is on the horizon.

I did say on day dot if we did leave it would be a big swizz!!!

It looks like May deal with some added fluff!!

There is a rumour that EU will agree a ratification period extension due to deal agreed in all but name but then try to force the confirmatory vote as part of the terms.

The deal agreed or remain!!!

And we all know brexiteers will simply not vote for either leaving remain the outright winner. I just hope Boris has an ace up his sleeve and it really is just a way of getting the general election.

But the Brexiteers said it would all be very easy.

They couldn't have been lying, could they? 😂😂😂

[blueshark]

Boris has lost his overall majority, so can safely fook over Northern Ireland with nothing to lose. Then go to the country having delivered a (sort of) deal. He's banking on people thinking he is marginally less awful a prospect than Jezzer.

[Deleted]

It would be easy if the same unanimous parliament that voted for a referendum and the same numbers that voted for article 50 didn't turncoat for their political careers then proceeded to thwart it, then toeing the party line under a leader that demanded a general election 100's of times until such time that Boris came along and scared them so much that bottled it.

Lets face it under a parliament backing the everything then backing nothing is it any wonder the EU sat back and lapped it all up.

If the whole parliament stuck to the task and kept no deal on the table from day one then yes it would have been easy.

You can't negotiate in business if you tell the opponents in the negotiating that no matter what happens you will take a deal. If you want £150k for your house and I say I am defintelly buying then would you drop the price? no I didn't think so!

Even with yellow hammer the best they could scaremonger was we would lose 40% of trade deals, which was literally a worse case scenario proven by IDS as a figure plucked out the sky with no consultation. There is no way the EU would ever pass up the trade deals and even today Merkel said we would be a fierce competitor against the entire EU.

It's a shame Boris didn't take it up instead of May because the general election in 2017 would have been a lot different and the harsh reality in UK politics has been exposed. There is no point having minority government because you will be lucky to squeeze a fart through parliament let alone a life changing deals like brexit. Everyone knows if Boris was sat on 400 seats this would be a breeze and the EU would brick it and fold. The constant extensions despite the farce is categoric evidence that they need the deal as much as us if not much much more.

Not that you will agree lol

[bertieauld]

I do totally agree actually tilts

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 20:29:46 GMT @kingtilton said:

It would be easy if the same unanimous parliament that voted for a referendum and the same numbers that voted for article 50 didn't turncoat for their political careers then proceeded to thwart it, then toeing the party line under a leader that demanded a general election 100's of times until such time that Boris came along and scared them so much that bottled it.

Lets face it under a parliament backing the everything then backing nothing is it any wonder the EU sat back and lapped it all up.

If the whole parliament stuck to the task and kept no deal on the table from day one then yes it would have been easy.

You can't negotiate in business if you tell the opponents in the negotiating that no matter what happens you will take a deal. If you want £150k for your house and I say I am defintelly buying then would you drop the price? no I didn't think so!

Even with yellow hammer the best they could scaremonger was we would lose 40% of trade deals, which was literally a worse case scenario proven by IDS as a figure plucked out the sky with no consultation. There is no way the EU would ever pass up the trade deals and even today Merkel said we would be a fierce competitor against the entire EU.

It's a shame Boris didn't take it up instead of May because the general election in 2017 would have been a lot different and the harsh reality in UK politics has been exposed. There is no point having minority government because you will be lucky to squeeze a fart through parliament let alone a life changing deals like brexit. Everyone knows if Boris was sat on 400 seats this would be a breeze and the EU would brick it and fold. The constant extensions despite the farce is categoric evidence that they need the deal as much as us if not much much more.

Not that you will agree lol

One minute you’re saying we should accept the backstop, which has all sorts of possible complications in the future, including a return to sectarian civil war, the next you’re happy with no deal because the governments own predictions are bad, but not that bad ... maybe, perhaps, hopefully.

The thing is, you’re just hoping it will be OK, with absolutely no evidence that it will be, apart from the fact that you’ve got your fingers crossed. Just like the Brexiteers hoped it would be easy to negotiate a deal.

Now I’m all for optimism in life - why else would I be a Blues fan? But when it comes to the future of my country, I expect a little more of a realistic approach. Your populist approach to Brexit, just like all populist approaches to politics, is predicated on easy answers. You know, “build a wall”, “go back where you came from”, “the Germans will roll over to have their tummies tickled because they’re desperate to sell their BMWs and Audis to the UK - they’ll sign a trade deal on the day after we leave - no problem”.

The trouble is, there are no easy answers. Never have been, never will be.

And we’re just about to discover the reality of that in the next two weeks, two months or however long it takes the Brexiteers to get their precious Brexit. And then we’ll hear those Brexiteers squeal.

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 20:37:09 GMT bertieauld said:

I do totally agree actually tilts

Well I totally disagree Bertrand.

[Deleted]

As stated a deal would always happen but the need for the EU to entertain any form of negotiation of trade agreements were taken away at every step by remain politicians.

It's clear any deal would put us in a partnership with the EU without actually being tied to freedom of movement, customs union or ECJ a little slant on the Norway trade element. We also have the Swiss bordered countries.

Tech already exists but hey we have fecked around for 3 years, to be honest I hoped that during this whole period we would have pushed ahead with similar tech as well. But hey they have been TALKING and not ACTING!!

There is no reason to have a hard border in Ireland it's been over sold to add to the problems. I think they will elect for the border in the sea anyway.

As said a no deal brexit in reality was only ever a 0.01% chance and parliaments meddling has created this situation. A strong leave leader with a majority would have been able to skip all this blocking a long time ago. EU didn't want to negotiate with Cameron because there was no special deals and they would never have give May a deal for the same reason it was an associate membership with all the costs and surrendering the same powers. Boris has clearlt pushed the right buttons and given the EU food for thought with threats of manipulating his way to go for No deal if necessary which is probably the only reason they are talking. EU knows that an extension and no negotation would have led to a General election and a hefty majority with big headed Boris coming back to the table to stick his two fingers up at them.....Then it would be a desperate situation for them and they wouldn't risk that for the sake of bending now.

I still think the deal that will be done may be a watered down version of what people want with bringing UK back to making it's own decisons and if the legal text is ok then I am happy for the compromise. Although we have been here before, on the face of it everyone would have voted May's deal through from it's headlines, then we all know the legal side of it was shocking.

Ps... don't just assume I don't give a shit about the peace process!!

[Deleted]

“There is no reason to have a hard border in Ireland it's been over sold to add to the problems. I think they will elect for the border in the sea anyway.”

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney was on the Andrew Marr show recently and he said that if a political deal AND/OR a trade deal was not signed between the EU and the UK then there could be no open border, full stop. That is the whole point of the backstop. So of course we can all HOPE tha those deals are signed, but hope butters no parsnips I’m afraid. We can’t be sure that the political agreement will be signed, but if it is the trade agreements are going to be just as complex, if not more so. In other words IT WILL NOT BE EASY. So we were sold a lie - at least those who bought it were.

And I don’t doubt that you care about the peace process - I just think that you are grossly underestimating the threat that is currently being posed to it.

[Deleted]

There are a lot of experts saying a lot of stuff about this. Not all of it is true.

I haven't yet seen evidence of any politician not being made silly by previous comments or statements made in the recent or distant past. The hysteria for project fear was blown out the water, the yeloowhammer was a worst case scenario but if you carried out a risk assessment for going out the house to buy some milk you could have yourself dead just based on negotiating the stairs!!

You have to take all these statements with a pinch of salt and deduce your own findings whilst sifting through the agenda on both sides of every statement. If I trawled the internet for half a day I dare say I could find ministers who would find fault in that statement and endless news articles that would say it's just poppycock but what is the point when each media source is entrenched in it's agenda and a remain media source will back you up and a brexit one would back up what I am saying etc etc.

The point of government is to find a way to deliver the manifesto that is promised, with careful consideration to the peace process and the will of the people they will find a way. The fact that the EU are actually making the right noises after less than 3 months of Boris of which we had a summer recess is showing people just what a strong leader can achieve. He may come across as a blithering idiot and he may well be a blithering idiot but it's clear that he has done more in 3 months than the other idiots managed in over 10 times more months!

You won't really find me liking hardly any politicians because they are all out for themselves but if he pulls off a deal that suits all sides and the EU then I will have a lot more respect for him than I do anyone else in that house!

[Deleted]

Oct 15, 2019 20:29:46 GMT @kingtilton said:

It would be easy if the same unanimous parliament that voted for a referendum and the same numbers that voted for article 50 didn't turncoat for their political careers then proceeded to thwart it, then toeing the party line under a leader that demanded a general election 100's of times until such time that Boris came along and scared them so much that bottled it.

Lets face it under a parliament backing the everything then backing nothing is it any wonder the EU sat back and lapped it all up.

If the whole parliament stuck to the task and kept no deal on the table from day one then yes it would have been easy.

You can't negotiate in business if you tell the opponents in the negotiating that no matter what happens you will take a deal. If you want £150k for your house and I say I am defintelly buying then would you drop the price? no I didn't think so!

Even with yellow hammer the best they could scaremonger was we would lose 40% of trade deals, which was literally a worse case scenario proven by IDS as a figure plucked out the sky with no consultation. There is no way the EU would ever pass up the trade deals and even today Merkel said we would be a fierce competitor against the entire EU.

It's a shame Boris didn't take it up instead of May because the general election in 2017 would have been a lot different and the harsh reality in UK politics has been exposed. There is no point having minority government because you will be lucky to squeeze a fart through parliament let alone a life changing deals like brexit. Everyone knows if Boris was sat on 400 seats this would be a breeze and the EU would brick it and fold. The constant extensions despite the farce is categoric evidence that they need the deal as much as us if not much much more.

Not that you will agree lol

Just a couple of things that are worthy of pointing out

1) the geniuses of the ERG and the DUP are as culpable for this mess as anyone. They’ve voted against the WA on multiple occasions and could have got brexit done already had they supported the government

2) the house negotiation simile doesn’t really work- it may work better if I was a landlord and you were the tenant and you said “ if you don’t let me out of my lease I’m going to move into a shitter house and you’re going to have to find another tenant”...... maybe not lol

3) yellowhammer was the current governments own assessments based on their “base case” not the worse case.
The question you have to ask is if no deal was such a desirable scenario why did they not release their full assessments?

[Deleted]

I believe that release of such conversations etc eradicates politics.

Playing every finite detail in the media leads to scaremongering and in this day and age that can cause economic instability.

Do you know why those putting together their doom on trade have not even consulted anyone at Calais?

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2019 8:17:26 GMT @kingtilton said:

I believe that release of such conversations etc eradicates politics.

Playing every finite detail in the media leads to scaremongering and in this day and age that can cause economic instability.

Do you know why those putting together their doom on trade have not even consulted anyone at Calais?

Given these are the governments own assessments...not parliaments...you’d like to think they’d do that diligence

But I wouldn’t trust Johnson raab leadsom truss et al to even know Dover exists


Interestingly-if no deal was such a good outcome for Brexiters In that it is the brexit we voted for...surely any deal bought back now is just folly and should be rejected ?

[jazzzy786]

We were talking about this exact subject and the only solutions we could find was the unification of Ireland or a hard border.

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2019 15:12:59 GMT jazzzy786 said:

We were talking about this exact subject and the only solutions we could find was the unification of Ireland or a hard border.

There is a third alternative, the very best one, but it’ll never happen because it’s based on common sense.

[BillyNoMatesformerlyTheMadFrog]

Oct 16, 2019 16:07:29 GMT @will said:

Oct 16, 2019 15:12:59 GMT jazzzy786 said:

We were talking about this exact subject and the only solutions we could find was the unification of Ireland or a hard border.

There is a third alternative, the very best one, but it’ll never happen because it’s based on common sense.

Air strikes?

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2019 16:47:35 GMT BillyNoMatesformerlyTheMadFrog said:

Oct 16, 2019 16:07:29 GMT @will said:

There is a third alternative, the very best one, but it’ll never happen because it’s based on common sense.

Air strikes?

Where?

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2019 16:07:29 GMT @will said:

Oct 16, 2019 15:12:59 GMT jazzzy786 said:

We were talking about this exact subject and the only solutions we could find was the unification of Ireland or a hard border.

There is a third alternative, the very best one, but it’ll never happen because it’s based on common sense.

Is that the one where if we all just believed a bit harder the link unicorns would arrive??

[Deleted]

Oct 16, 2019 17:54:52 GMT @bluenose68 said:

Oct 16, 2019 16:07:29 GMT @will said:

There is a third alternative, the very best one, but it’ll never happen because it’s based on common sense.

Is that the one where if we all just believed a bit harder the link unicorns would arrive??

Oh, I’d forgotten that one - let’s all cross our fingers and everything will be ok. 🤞 

[Deleted]

It’s probably like a football transfer but brexit deal has been done.

No unicorns

[Deleted]

Any political decisions, change of Governments in my life time (excluding great wars) have had no effect on my life, the way I spend, do things, employment etc

I believe this to be pretty much case over civilisation and backed up with 30 odd million who could be arsed to vote

Will it get through on Saturday ? lets hope so move and forget about the word Brexit

If defeat does happen I expect Boris to leave without a deal, Benn deal dead in the water as a deals been done and you didn't vote for it, can't have it both ways otherwise a bit like a dog chasing it tail

Deal on the table vote move on, general election, Boris to win and spend 5 years changing laws to keep Blue in power, Labour to oust Corbyn replaced by David Millaband

SNP to lose Scottish Independence election, Sturgeon tinned and Blackford exiled from the House of Commons

Nigel Farage to final get a MP status when there's nothing for him to do

Lib Dems fold like a losing hand in Poker and disappear into the history of Politics

[monkeyman]

Isn't it a bit early for a prediction from you? ;-)

[Deleted]

There are some points to ponder and these points lead me to believe this is done before people moan about the legal text....

Tories onside

I guess even the sacked ones may support it

DUP

Not onside yet but some investment grants could change that

ERG onside

They are crucial to Tories squeaking towards 300 yes votes

Labour Brexiteers

Not sure where the numbers lie on this anymore but I believe 20+ were very keen

EU hold all the power

The interesting part is if they are happy it forms a crucial part to Boris getting this through Parliament with or without consent.

Essentially if they are also saying no need for prolonging this they could simply say to Parliament either take this deal or they veto request to extend. Even the legal challenges would fail because once it gets to EU court they can just block any uk court ruling.

Be interested to see the legal text and what is in place but finally I think it’s done wether anyone likes it or not.

[Deleted]

Eu not ruling out an extension. Big day in parliament saturday.


Would be interesting to see if it goes to Boris deal or remain on a 2nd ref

[Deleted]

Interesting that fatale has denounced it......

it it was never about being on the winning side for him tho

absolute chancer

[Deleted]

People said the backstop was absolutely a no way from EU

That's gone.

I would say that is progress. Most of the legal text has been examined now and it looks like the vote will at least be better than the May best result and it's literally gonna be a handful of votes in it but slightly in favour of the deal. Probably be as little as 1 or 2 votes in it. Who knows maybe 52% of MP's will vote for it

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2019 17:09:16 GMT @bluenose68 said:

Interesting that fatale has denounced it......

it it was never about being on the winning side for him tho

absolute chancer

Interesting that predictive text changed "Farage" into "Fatale". I could think of a few other words ...

[Deleted]

Oct 17, 2019 18:36:04 GMT @kingtilton said:

People said the backstop was absolutely a no way from EU

That's gone.

I would say that is progress. Most of the legal text has been examined now and it looks like the vote will at least be better than the May best result and it's literally gonna be a handful of votes in it but slightly in favour of the deal. Probably be as little as 1 or 2 votes in it. Who knows maybe 52% of MP's will vote for it

Except the backstop now has literally been flipped to a front stop.....no wonder farage is unhappy...we’ve signed up to something the EU offered may 18 months ago...hardly progress 

For people who wanted “proper” brexit they should be fuming with this

FWIW i think the deal will pass Saturday...