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Post by coopobot on Feb 24, 2024 7:00:50 GMT
As you wish, tomorrow now though, the evidence is as long as it is damning. Morning. Come on then. We are all waiting.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 8:27:17 GMT
not long now.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 8:50:24 GMT
As you all probably the know, the competition involves selecting each team in the championship to finish in specific predited positions. There is of course 24 options for each team correspondng to 24 positions. It is crucial you remember this point, 24 options for each team.
The charge against the (already convicted) defendent is that in 3 seperate seasons he has deliberately and beyond all doubt, simply copied another poster's entries, minimally juggled a few teams around and submitted the prediction as his own in a most ungentlemanly way that shakes the moral fibre of this forum to it's very foundations. By the time the evidence has fnished being laid out before this court, you will have no opton other than to conclude the defendent is guilty, guilty, guilty.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 9:00:16 GMT
The poster tilts has, last year aside, consistently fnished very high in the prediction league competition, indeed he proudly mentions it in his forum signature. In seasons 2018/2019, 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 the prosecution submits that the poster Brightside has waited for the consistently sucessful poster tilts to make his predictions, then taken that prediction as a base, minimally juggled a few and in some cases very few teams around and submitted the prediction as his own. Essentially piggybacking on a successful predictor's entry to obtain a desired likely higher final placing. These are the charges, the evidence will follow.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 9:34:13 GMT
As said there are 24 options for the placing of each team, positions 1-24.
Before coming to the defendent's own submitted entries, it may be useful to consider other completely random selections of posting duos with similar scores. With this in mind I have selected KEVINUK scoring 108 and compared him to JAZZY scoring 104, BORIS scoring 96 with BERTIE scoring 90 ROYALBLUE scoring 104 with CHOC scoring 106 and finally myself scoring 78 with TILTS scoring 76.
These are the results of those comparisons.
KEVINUK/JAZZY - had 3 teams out of 24 in their exact same predicted position and a further 8 just one position different to each other.
BORIS/BERTIE - had 6 teams out of 24 in their exact same predicted position and a further 7 just one position off.
ROYAL/CHOC - had just 1 team out of 24 in their exact same predicted position and a further 8 just one position off.
BUBBA/TILTS - had 3 teams out of 24 in their exact same predicted position and a further 4 just one position off.
These comparisons give a rough baseline of what to expect between any two posters WITH SIMILAR SCORES. The end of that sentence is emphasised to make the point that there is already some preselection bias in these comparisons since true random comparisons would take ANY two posters predictions and would thus have an even lower correlation than those above such as selecting duos to compare before any games have even been played. However, the above will more than suffice to provide a baseline.
Back in 2018/2019 TILTS made his entry to that year's competition, a short while AFTER (when copying somene's entry the copier always naturally has to be after, and he always was when copying) BRIGHTSIDE made his entry. Though I didn't pick it up at the time, during one score totalling event I noticed an extremely strong correlation between these two posters' scores. On investigating further it beecame overwhelmigly clear that the latter had to an extremely large degree simply copied the former's entry. A few teams had been jugled around, but the evidence was damning and beyond question.
The TILTS/BRIGHTSIDE comparison was
15 teams in the exact same position and of the remaining 9 teams all bar one was just one place different.
This kind of correlation goes far far beyond mere chance or like minds, in the real world it just DOES NOT HAPPEN, especially from a pool of just 11 people in that year. Consider the lottery picking 6 numbers out of 49 possibilties being a 14 million to one chance and how many times two or more people share the jackpot AND how many millions have to enter to get more than one person to exactly match another's entry.
I sent a private messagee to John, tilts and monkeyman who at the time was both moderator and another consistently successful predctior both to explan what had taken place but also to specifically ask both mm and tilts to submit very late entries in future to avoid repeats of this taking place.
The following two years there was no correlation, BRIGHTSIDE retrned to be near the botom of rankings, tilts continued beng consistently successful.
The court adjourns for a cup of tea.
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Post by Dirty White Slip-on on Feb 24, 2024 9:42:53 GMT
Harsh !!! every year I take somebodies entry (whoever that maybe) copy and paste on to doc and then jiggle it to my sections...... I'm sure this is what others do Lets put this in to prospective, at the bookies you make a bet and on horse / dog race picking a placepot or Lucky 15 any bet that has multiply selections, you take your bet to counter and the assistant says sorry no can do to many people have those selections or selections in a different order There was a guy on Twitter who posted a Lucky 15 on his site And's Bet Club for those interested, it had so many hits that a particular bookie physically stop taking bets, everybody copied it or used to it various other permutations
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Post by expatjohn on Feb 24, 2024 9:51:16 GMT
Harsh !!! every year I take somebodies entry (whoever that maybe) copy and paste on to doc and then jiggle it to my sections...... I'm sure this is what others do Yes, that's my Modus too. I usually change too many! 🤣
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 9:56:58 GMT
Before moving on I should note that in that season 18/19 the serially underperforming BRIGHTSIDE finished 3rd to TILTS' 2nd trailing him by just 6 points.
The following 2 seasons TILT's continued in the upper echelons of placings and BRIGHTSDE finished mid to lower table with no correlation.
Last season the previous incident now distant n the memory I confess to failing to pick up on another unlikely correlation between these two posters' scores. Not as damning as the first, and probably why I missed it at the time, only findng it in retrospect and building this case.
In season 2022/2023 the correlation between the posters TILTS/BRIGHTSIDE was
9 teams in the exact same position as each other and a further 8 just one position away.
Now admittedly at first glance this may not seem as damning as the previous example and is not massively higher than the duos listed for a baseline's highest return of 6 and 7 for BORIS/BERTIE, however it should be taken in the context of the previous transgression aswell still predicting 17 out of 24 teams either exactly the same or just one position off. As a standalone evidence this particular season would not be sufficient for conviction, but as said it is submitted to show that lightning struck for a second time with the same two posters and that becomes more relevant when lightning strikes for the third time this season.
It should also be noted that completely uncharcteristically tilts had his only appalling season finishing 14th out of 14 posters on 160 points, BRIGHTSIDE followed him down to the very bottom finishing one place higher on 152 points.
Next we shall present the evidence from this season.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 10:00:46 GMT
Harsh !!! every year I take somebodies entry (whoever that maybe) copy and paste on to doc and then jiggle it to my sections...... I'm sure this is what others do Lets put this in to prospective, at the bookies you make a bet and on horse / dog race picking a placepot or Lucky 15 any bet that has multiply selections, you take your bet to counter and the assistant says sorry no can do to many people have those selections or selections in a different order There was a guy on Twitter who posted a Lucky 15 on his site And's Bet Club for those interested, it had so many hits that a particular bookie physically stop taking bets, everybody copied it or used to it various other permutations
You're missing the point. Copying the teams and positions over and moving them into your own selected predictions is fine, what's not fine is leaving 14 or 15 in the exact same position and with the rest swapping the other persons' 23 and 24 around to be 24 and 23 and the other person's 1 and 2 around to be 2 and 1, that is not an orignal prediction, that is thinly veiled plagiarism.
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Post by bruminoz on Feb 24, 2024 10:02:41 GMT
I was wondering why nobody copied me 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 10:05:32 GMT
Harsh !!! every year I take somebodies entry (whoever that maybe) copy and paste on to doc and then jiggle it to my sections...... I'm sure this is what others do Yes, that's my Modus too. I usually change too many! 🤣
Yes, I'm sure many do similar, but nobody else ends up with 14/15 teams in the exact same position as another poster. Let's not confuse the actual action of copy and pasting on a pc/laptop/phone to save time with plagiaristic actions of minimally moving anything to piggyback on the succesful consistency of another, I mean it's not like he copied 15 team predictions of BRuMINOZ exactly, (sorry OZ) no he copied arguably the most successful predicctor not once, not twice but three times.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 10:06:14 GMT
I was wondering why nobody copied me 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 HAHAHA sorry just posted this
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Post by bruminoz on Feb 24, 2024 10:12:34 GMT
Yes, that's my Modus too. I usually change too many! 🤣
Yes, I'm sure many do similar, but nobody else ends up with 14/15 teams in the exact same position as another poster. Let's not confuse the actual action of copy and pasting on a pc/laptop/phone to save time with plagiaristic actions of minimally moving anything to piggyback on the succesful consistency of another, I mean it's not like he copied 15 team predictions of BRuMINOZ exactly, (sorry OZ) no he copied arguably the most successful predicctor not once, not twice but three times.
All good 👍
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Post by bruminoz on Feb 24, 2024 10:13:32 GMT
I was wondering why nobody copied me 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 HAHAHA sorry just posted this Jest you may, but the season is not over
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Post by brightside on Feb 24, 2024 10:27:13 GMT
Thanks Bubba I suspected that you were going in that direction and to some extent you are correct although it has absolutely nothing to do with Tilts. I look at all the submissions and judge them against my thoughts. The big thing for me is saving time writing out on my iPad all 24 teams so it’s far easier to find a submission that is nearest to my own thoughts and then make the necessary changes so it becomes uniquely my own submission. I honestly didn’t realise that I have chosen to use Tilts more than once but if you say so you must be right. That suggests that Tilts and my thoughts are very much aligned which is probably not a coincidence as he knows a thing or two just like a lot of posters on here.
So basically I am guilty of choosing an administrative process that helps me to save time in submitting my unique entry. I would be very surprised if others don’t do a similar process to help inform their submissions and save time.
So if it makes you mods feel better about some upstart getting in the way of your competition between you then fine disqualify me as this crime is obviously so terrible it should be dealt with severely.
So let it be a warning though to others
Cheers Brighty 😁
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 10:28:53 GMT
OK finally we move on to this season.
BRIGHTSIDE was 1st on 70 points, 6 points ahead of TILTS in 2nd on 76.
Here are TILTS predictions followed by BRIGHTIDE'S to the right.
1. LEICESTER---------------------LEICESTER
2. SOUTHAMPTON----------------SOUTHAMPTON
3. NORWICH----------------------NORWICH
4. LEEDS--------------------------LEEDS
5. HULL----------------------------HULL
6. IPSWICH-----------------------IPSWICH
7. PRESTON-----------------------PRESTON 8. STOKE--------------------------SUNDERLAND
9. BLUES--------------------------BLUES
10 SUNDERLAND-----------------WBA 11 WBA---------------------------WATFORD 12 PLYMOUTH--------------------PLYMOUTH 13 WATFORD---------------------STOKE 14 COVENTRY--------------------COVENTRY 15 BRISTOL----------------------BRISTOL 16 BLACKBURN------------------BLACKBURN 17 MILLWALL---------------------MILLWALL 18 CARDIFF----------------------SWANSEA 19 SWANSEA---------------------CARDIFF---------------THESE 2 JUST SWAPPED OVER 20 QPR----------------------------MIDD'BORO 21 MIDD'BORO-------------------QPR--------------------THESE 2 JUST SWAPPED OVER 22 HUDDERSFIELD---------------HUDDERSFIELD 23 SHEFF WED-------------------ROTHERHAM 24 ROTHERHAM------------------SHEFF WED-----------THESE 2 JUST SWAPPED OVER
14 EXACT matches and 6 of the bottom 7 in 3 pairs just swapped over with each other.
Even the remaining 4 teams Stoke, Sunderland, WBA and Watford have clearly been just juggled around themselves in the space of 6 positions.
THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN BY CHANCE!
That concludes the evidence, the verdict is already in and the sentence passed. Any members of the public gallery still in doubt are invited to accompany me on the way to meet the Easter Bunny whilst I try and interest you in buying my magic beans.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 10:40:39 GMT
Thanks Bubba I suspected that you were going in that direction and to some extent you are correct although it has absolutely nothing to do with Tilts. I look at all the submissions and judge them against my thoughts. The big thing for me is saving time writing out on my iPad all 24 teams so it’s far easier to find a submission that is nearest to my own thoughts and then make the necessary changes so it becomes uniquely my own submission. I honestly didn’t realise that I have chosen to use Tilts more than once but if you say so you must be right. That suggests that Tilts and my thoughts are very much aligned which is probably not a coincidence as he knows a thing or two just like a lot of posters on here. So basically I am guilty of choosing an administrative process that helps me to save time in submitting my unique entry. I would be very surprised if others don’t do a similar process to help inform their submissions and save time. So if it makes you mods feel better about some upstart getting in the way of your competition between you then fine disqualify me as this crime is obviously so terrible it should be dealt with severely. So let it be a warning though to others Cheers Brighty 😁
I would have let you get away with that explanation were it not for that.
Whatever explanation you give does not explain the massive correlation between your predictions and those of tilts without deliberate intent, it just doesn't and not only once but 3 times. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. The Maths doesnt work, you simpy can not so closely emulate another particular poster 3 times when nobody else does it once to that degree in 9 years.
As for removing the competition The competition since the 2nd year when mm won it for the 2nd time has had a new winner EVERY single year and none of them were disqualified so the sour grapes defence doesnt really work either.
It's not personal, I actually like you as a poster though wish you'd just genuinely held your hands up without the charade or victimising claims, we move on.
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Post by kevinuk81 on Feb 24, 2024 11:35:53 GMT
Bubba, I know you are not accusing me of copying and pasting, (with a couple of teams slightly changed), let me say this, if you look at my first posts on the forum, and I only joined around the start of this season, I asked when this competition would start, I am here mainly for this prediction thread and the thread when Birmingham City play a league game, I don't post that much in other threads. When I made my prediction, I never looked at what anyone else did, it is all my own work 🤔 whether anyone copies another person, that is up to them, if they get the predictions badly wrong, more chance of me winning 🙂 if anyone copies me, then that's fine with me, I am unlucky in gambling, so their loss. Notice how everyone picked Leicester to win the league and the majority had Southampton up there?
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 12:01:33 GMT
Bubba, I know you are not accusing me of copying and pasting, (with a couple of teams slightly changed), let me say this, if you look at my first posts on the forum, and I only joined around the start of this season, I asked when this competition would start, I am here mainly for this prediction thread and the thread when Birmingham City play a league game, I don't post that much in other threads. When I made my prediction, I never looked at what anyone else did, it is all my own work 🤔 whether anyone copies another person, that is up to them, if they get the predictions badly wrong, more chance of me winning 🙂 if anyone copies me, then that's fine with me, I am unlucky in gambling, so their loss. Notice how everyone picked Leicester to win the league and the majority had Southampton up there?
It's true that it's quite common for many posters in most years to have strong correlation between the top 2 teams and the bottom 2 teams and there wll usually be some correlation regarding other teams suspected generally likely to have a good or poor season, after that it becomes much more random.
Look without being bolshy, for anyone that doesn't quite get it, I'm telling you for an absolute stone cold fact, the odds of the number of exact matches displayed are astronomical, when adding in most of the remainder are only one place off the numbers jut get ridculous, we're not talking hundreds to one, we're talking TRILLIONS to one, like two people having the same dna 5 Galaxies apart, and remember we're talking about more than one season. It's like a kid copying his mate's homework but changing a couple of sentences and thinking the teacher won't notice, the kid knew exactly what he was doing although in today's culture he'd no doubt get help for his low self esteem issues leading to him cheating.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 12:08:54 GMT
whether anyone copies another person, that is up to them, if they get the predictions badly wrong, more chance of me winning 🙂 if anyone copies me, then that's fine with me, I am unlucky in gambling, so their loss.
Also to clear this up. Yes it's just a bit of fun, but if we started out every year sayng these are the rules, but Tom, Dick and Harry dont have to play by them, then I don't think we'd have quite as many people wanting to partake in something they were going to be disadvanteged in from the start and why should they?
Also tilts has been historically (last year aside) arguably the most successful predictor, if he's not winning he's usally top 3 or 4. By another poster very closely matching his predictions, it's like giving one of the best predictors two similar but not exact entries to enhance his chances of winning, making it that much harder for everybody else.
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Post by Dirty White Slip-on on Feb 24, 2024 12:31:39 GMT
So did he copy Tilts last year when placed 14th ?
If so is just a case that this year due to the fact he's in top spot that it becomes an issue ?
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Post by choc on Feb 24, 2024 12:37:22 GMT
I'm going to copy Tilts completely next season just to block him from becoming outright winner😂
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 13:03:26 GMT
So did he copy Tilts last year when placed 14th ? If so is just a case that this year due to the fact he's in top spot that it becomes an issue ? This has actually already been answered and YES he did copy tilts last year finishing 13th to tilts 14th, the only really dreadful season tilts has ever had. Of course he wouldn't have known when copying tilts that tilts was going to have a shitty season.
Not sure why you seem to be struggling with this, perhaps I'm overestimating how obvious this should be to people. There is no dark agenda, tilts' predictions were copied to an extremely large extent over 3 seperate seasons, it hasn't happened between any other two posters even once. In the the seasons where tilts held fire on making predictions at my request and so his predictions could not be copied tilts and brightide had vastly different seasons, in the copying seasons they finished right next to each other precIsely because the entries were nearly identical REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THEY HAD GOOD OR BAD SEASONS.
Like tilts I'm routinely near the top, only finished outside top 3 twice and both tmes finished 5th and yet despite regularly posting scores close to each other we NEVER have more than 6 or 7 teams in the EXACT same position, it just does not happen. I'm sorry you seem to think for some reason that I'm wrong, I'm tellng you not only am I not wrong, the odds of my being wrong in this instance run into the trillons to one. I can't say it any plainer or give any more evidence, if there are any people reading that don't see that even without the Maths it's fishy beyond credibility then I can't help that, we're all different I guess, but the Maths side of it is irrefutable.
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Post by expatjohn on Feb 24, 2024 13:12:01 GMT
So did he copy Tilts last year when placed 14th ? If so is just a case that this year due to the fact he's in top spot that it becomes an issue ? I think that's been answered, and yes, he was in a similar position
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Post by coopobot on Feb 24, 2024 13:12:06 GMT
Not going to lie. I try waiting for tilts to post aswell so that i can change some around and use him as a starting point. Problem is he knows thats going to happen so posts late so people cant copy him.
So instead i copy and paste someone elses. Then change theres around and just go with it from there. Usually dropping birmingham way way down as you lot are all mad as a box of frogs thinking we have a chance of 6th each season.
Guilty of unsportsman like conduct, not guilty for disqualification in my opinion.
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 13:17:25 GMT
I'm going to copy Tilts completely next season just to block him from becoming outright winner😂
I know you're joking but I'm going to have tilts pm me his predictions going forwards and only submit them after closing the thread.
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Post by choc on Feb 24, 2024 13:20:39 GMT
There is an easy way round all of this of course. That's if everyone is upset by it. It's only a bit of fun after all.
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Post by Dirty White Slip-on on Feb 24, 2024 13:23:26 GMT
I'm going to copy Tilts completely next season just to block him from becoming outright winner😂
I know you're joking but I'm going to have tilts pm me his predictions going forwards and only submit them after closing the thread.
Jesus Christ I can see somebodies head swelling up, its a bit of fun ffs Do I need to check the Championship Match predictor........ they're pretty close in 21st and 27th position
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Post by bubba on Feb 24, 2024 13:32:07 GMT
Not going to lie. I try waiting for tilts to post aswell so that i can change some around and use him as a starting point. Problem is he knows thats going to happen so posts late so people cant copy him. So instead i copy and paste someone elses. Then change theres around and just go with it from there. Usually dropping birmingham way way down as you lot are all mad as a box of frogs thinking we have a chance of 6th each season. Guilty of unsportsman like conduct, not guilty for disqualification in my opinion.
Again this has been covered, what you and others have said is fine, no different to say for example guaging a likely election outcome from noting public opinion to help form your own view. What has taken place is far far beyond what you are saying though, the submissions are almost identical, the odds are trillions to one and no other two posters in 9 years have come even remotely close to repating that outcome, and it's arguably the most successful predictor who's been having his entries copied almost exactly!!!
I can't stress this enough from a pool of just 11 to 16 people over 3 seasons one poster has copied another exactly in 9, 14 and 15 positions and been just one out different in 21 remaining guesses, you'd get shorter odds of Ollie Burke kicking a football fom St Andrews that lands on the moon than that happening randomly or accidently.
I get it, some of you think you've done something similar, trust me you haven't, the evidence is in your own predictions and lack of correlation with others. I don't think some of you realise there's a critical component called the pool ie 11-16 posters in each instance or that these instances stack up one on top of the other, all this in addition to the spectacularly long odds in each indvidual case, particularly the first and third examples which together as said run the odds into the trillions to one. I can't explain it any better.
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Post by Dirty White Slip-on on Feb 24, 2024 13:36:42 GMT
get rid of Tilts is the obvious answer here
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