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Post by dutchblue on Mar 30, 2024 20:39:22 GMT
What’s the current consensus? Yes, or no. No maybe’s.
FWIW: Opta (updated today) has run all the remaining fixtures through its “supercomputer” 10,000 times. The average points for each team came out as follows:
Millwall: 52.82 Stoke City: 52.53 Queens Park Rangers: 50.60 Plymouth Argyle: 50.20 Blackburn Rovers: 49.23 Huddersfield Town: 47.46
Birmingham City: 46.95 Sheffield Wednesday: 46.80 Rotherham United: 26.61
Goal difference might well be what saves us?
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Post by tonyhancock on Mar 30, 2024 21:12:45 GMT
We fight to the end
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Post by bubba on Mar 30, 2024 21:28:28 GMT
Finally got too close to call, at this point it's a coin toss.
After initially not being sure a replacement temp manager was the way to go I came around to Rowett maybe being our best shot at this run in but tbh was a bit shocked at his line up which still had Stansfield essentially playing as centre forward and did little to increase our creativity.
I know he was a bit hamstrung by injuries and players having been on international duty (though he started 3 of them) but imho he simply has to come up with something better up front and he has to do it from players already on the books, if his big idea is basically just playing a back 3 instead of a back 4 and not changing much else I think we may be fooked.
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Post by TILTON on Mar 30, 2024 21:56:53 GMT
I feel down but it's all about that spark...
If they come to life after failing the next 3 home games then the damage is likely to be so bad it's almost impossible to reverse.
We are capable of doing something at home with these players but I think the one common theme running through all the managers this season is woeful away showing.
Of our 3 away wins Bristol City was thoroughly deserved the Stoke and Cardiff games could have easily gone bad.
So the odds on us winning any other away game Rotherham apart is really slim. Huddersfield should be in this category but we have proven that any team with a hard work ethic and a small amount of quality can out fight us. Rotherham are a cut below absolutely every team and they only beat us when pressure is all off them and all on us!
So with needing perhaps 9 points to stand a chance we now need to win 3 from 4 home games so if we don't start real soon then we are done.
If we do not show up Monday I think the players can expect to finally get abused by the fans because I think even our fan base has become as limp as the team.
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Post by bignumbernine on Mar 30, 2024 23:15:57 GMT
I think we’re down.
Performances are at rock bottom with no sign it will improve. We create nothing up top and always have a tendency to leak something at the back.
The post mortem, even if we stay up, needs to be thorough and ruthless to truly understand where it had gone wrong.
Poor timings on management changes, questionable appointments and disappointing winter transfer window should all be investigated in my opinion.
From a promising summer window and reasonable start to the season, it’s quite remarkable how fast we’ve sunk over the past few months.
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 31, 2024 5:07:00 GMT
I agree with Bubba, Opta and pretty much all the bookmakers. It’s a coin toss. Also agree with Big#9, it’s been a remarkable nosedive.
It seems a long, long time ago when we had that little run of 3 consecutive wins Cheltenham (A) Leeds (H) Bristol C (A). What seems amazing now is that over those 3 games, we kept 3/3 clean sheets, scored 5 times, had 48 goal attempts (yes, FORTY EIGHT) and restricted the opposition to just ONE shot on goal during 270 minutes of football.
So what’s different to now? Well, we still played 4-2-3-1 but we played each game with a number 9. Hogan started twice, Juke once. Juke and Hogan also played together for 15 minutes against Bristol C. There was no sign of Pritchard, Dozell, Paik (obviously) but also no Stansfield, Drameh, Aiwu, Roberts or Tyler. It was a completely different looking team back then with a proper focal point and a bit of bite.
So the best starting line up we still have available from that spell would look like Ruddy Laird - Sanderson - Long (oops, we let him go) - Buchanan - Longelo Bielik - Sunjic Bacuna - Anderson - Dembele Hogan
Subs incl. Juke, Miyoshi, James (who all figured).
Yes, we will stay up. Just. Likely by 1 point, or more likely by goal difference. But ONLY if GR is brave enough and smart enough to make some pretty radical changes and get us back to basics.
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Post by choc on Mar 31, 2024 8:24:55 GMT
Finally got too close to call, at this point it's a coin toss.
After initially not being sure a replacement temp manager was the way to go I came around to Rowett maybe being our best shot at this run in but tbh was a bit shocked at his line up which still had Stansfield essentially playing as centre forward and did little to increase our creativity.
I know he was a bit hamstrung by injuries and players having been on international duty (though he started 3 of them) but imho he simply has to come up with something better up front and he has to do it from players already on the books, if his big idea is basically just playing a back 3 instead of a back 4 and not changing much else I think we may be fooked.
This is why I would have got Warnock in. He would have sussed this lot out in no time and I think you would have seen the sort of radical changes you have been suggesting to make a difference.
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Post by borisblue on Mar 31, 2024 10:21:14 GMT
I’m sorry but Mr Babbage has miscalculated. Blues are staying up.
Looking at the fixtures of other teams and the form of Blackburn and Plymouth gives me some hope.
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Post by onlyblue on Mar 31, 2024 11:57:19 GMT
We have too many very poor players to avoid the drop. The defence is almost not able to defend a cross into the box and clearing the box is a panicked lash at the ball or a stupid pass quite often to an opponent. I have been supporting the Blues since 1959 and this is possibly the worst team I can remember.
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Post by choc on Mar 31, 2024 12:04:00 GMT
We have too many very poor players to avoid the drop. The defence is almost not able to defend a cross into the box and clearing the box is a panicked lash at the ball or a stupid pass quite often to an opponent. I have been supporting the Blues since 1959 and this is possibly the worst team I can remember. Worst make up of a squad I can remember.
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Post by kevinuk81 on Mar 31, 2024 12:18:18 GMT
I predict we will stay up by 1 point.
Next season will be a lot better, but cannot see higher than 8th.
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Post by jazzzy786 on Mar 31, 2024 15:13:36 GMT
We can't defend, struggle to score. It's the perfect recipe for relegation fodder. We aren't down yet and we have been in a much worse situation and stayed up. Do we see the fight in this team though? We do have some good players who on their day can pull out rabbits from hats. So it's all up to what the likes of Miyoshi, Bacuna, Stansfield, JJ and Dembele can conjure up.
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Post by gammo on Mar 31, 2024 19:12:49 GMT
For me it all depends on tomorrow.
Lose, and if other results go against us, we could be 3 points adrift with Leicester next up (which by then we could be 6 points adrift).
Win, and if results go for us, we could be 3 points clear and heading to Leicester to try to pick up a point.
As for Blackburn, why did Deeney feel it was the right thing to do to go to Blackburn and give Eustace a couple of pointers to 'help them out?' If we were safe, no problem with that, but we aren't and it could be between us and them who goes down 😡😡
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Post by dutchblue on Mar 31, 2024 19:26:28 GMT
For me it all depends on tomorrow. Lose, and if other results go against us, we could be 3 points adrift with Leicester next up (which by then we could be 6 points adrift). Win, and if results go for us, we could be 3 points clear and heading to Leicester to try to pick up a point. As for Blackburn, why did Deeney feel it was the right thing to do to go to Blackburn and give Eustace a couple of pointers to 'help them out?' If we were safe, no problem with that, but we aren't and it could be between us and them who goes down 😡😡 I think I mentioned it on here a few weeks ago, but that nagging ‘orrible feeling in my gut tells me it’s going to be a final day showdown, with Blackburn and Blues in the mix. Eustace getting the last laugh would be pretty grim. I actually can’t bear to think about it too much.
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Post by bignumbernine on Mar 31, 2024 19:33:25 GMT
Eustace sending us down would be poetic. And exactly what we deserve.
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Post by jazzzy786 on Mar 31, 2024 20:52:44 GMT
Eustace sending us down would be poetic. And exactly what we deserve. No we don't. The supporters didn't want Rooney. I'd much rather Eustace crying than BCFC.
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Post by bignumbernine on Mar 31, 2024 20:57:23 GMT
Eustace sending us down would be poetic. And exactly what we deserve. No we don't. The supporters didn't want Rooney. I'd much rather Eustace crying than BCFC. When I say “we” I mean the club, not the fans. The fans are the biggest victim in this catastrophe.
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Post by choc on Mar 31, 2024 21:14:27 GMT
No we don't. The supporters didn't want Rooney. I'd much rather Eustace crying than BCFC. When I say “we” I mean the club, not the fans. The fans are the biggest victim in this catastrophe. Eustace was also part of this cluster fcuk.
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Post by gammo on Mar 31, 2024 21:23:18 GMT
My worst nightmare - we go down and the inbreds win their European Cup.....they won't stop reminding is for decades 🙁🙁🙁
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Post by bignumbernine on Mar 31, 2024 21:50:01 GMT
My worst nightmare - we go down and the inbreds win their European Cup.....they won't stop reminding is for decades 🙁🙁🙁 Really can’t blame them. They’re 4th in the league with a great squad. They’re drawing big crowds to their home games. If the roles were reversed we’d be saying the same stuff to them.
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Post by bubba on Mar 31, 2024 22:08:45 GMT
When I say “we” I mean the club, not the fans. The fans are the biggest victim in this catastrophe. Eustace was also part of this cluster fcuk. People are very quick to criticise Craigy no brainer for the recruitment when it's almost a racing certainty Mr Eustace had a far bigger say, all the chronically injured signings, Sanderson he was desperate for, Burke? ? ? and where was the plan B when Sory Kaba went elsewhere?
I'm not hanging it all on Eustace, far from it but when people criticise the Summer recruitment he shouldn't escape blame and tbf neither should Mowbray who I really like and rate, when going for 3 midfielders and ignoring the lack of a centre forward. Obviously the recruitment team too have a lot to answer for.
I was the loudest voice back in the Summer crticsing the number of players we were signing with dodgy injury histories, some we got away with, some we didn't, it wasn't rocket science. I was also the most critical over the Ollie Burke signing, to anybody paying attention it was obvious yet paid (no doubt expensively paid) professionals thought it a gamble worth taking.
I'm not saying this to boast (I'm usually much more shouty when boasting ) but it never ceases to amaze me how paid professionals in football recruitment can be so damned ordinary in their performance with all the resources at their disposal.
On that subject and statistical analysis in recruitment now that we are using and intent on ramping up, it has always been my understanding that the best moneyball type recruiters out there use the stats but that the final analysis is seeing the player in person AND checking out the player's character, can't help feeling that last element was just completely ignored.
If you look at tomorrow's opponents Preston they have a fairly limited squad but it is packed out with men, real battlers who will fight tooth and nail for everything, not one or two but literally 14, 15, 16 of them. Which brings us on to another cliche, you have to earn the right to play, because all the skill in the world will count for nothing if your opponents generally want it more than you most of the time.
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Post by TILTON on Apr 1, 2024 10:39:43 GMT
I don't believe Eustace would have much say on signings. Especially Paik and Miyoshi and any other small stature type player as that is the clubs playing out vision.
Also the club through previous days and now under Gardner are still targeting players with chequered fitness records as they are cheaper than the real footballers who can stay fit.
What I will also say is how many of these players were viewed as good signings by media and fans prior to Rooney walking in the door?
I don't remember the deluge of comments on here saying how bad these players were?
Laying this on JE as much as I would like to is pretty poor. Despite his poor September away we still clocked 18 points in 11 and since then countless have tried to win away games and failed on that score too.
As much as I disliked JE there is no way we'd be sat on 39 points under him at this stage. There is no evidence to suggest that a manager can keep this lot up with a bit of over the shoulder gazing last season then struggle while having new players all of which looked comfortable until he left. He would also have signed better players in january because in reality the window was an epic fail and that one I believe Mowbray would have had a bigger say hence Pritchard who's been a complete waste of time.
The only yard stick for managers is simple....
Where were the team when you walked in the door? (Finished on 47 points under Bowyer) Where were the team when you left?
Yeah we were unlikely to finish there but every other statement about his tenure is just subjective. He done better than Bowyer with terrible backing. He's done better with this squad than most, even Mowbray getting 10 points in 6 games is still only 0.06 PPG better and lets not forget the no show at Sheff Wed!!
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Post by choc on Apr 1, 2024 11:59:31 GMT
I don't believe Eustace would have much say on signings. Especially Paik and Miyoshi and any other small stature type player as that is the clubs playing out vision. Also the club through previous days and now under Gardner are still targeting players with chequered fitness records as they are cheaper than the real footballers who can stay fit. What I will also say is how many of these players were viewed as good signings by media and fans prior to Rooney walking in the door? I don't remember the deluge of comments on here saying how bad these players were? Laying this on JE as much as I would like to is pretty poor. Despite his poor September away we still clocked 18 points in 11 and since then countless have tried to win away games and failed on that score too.As much as I disliked JE there is no way we'd be sat on 39 points under him at this stage. There is no evidence to suggest that a manager can keep this lot up with a bit of over the shoulder gazing last season then struggle while having new players all of which looked comfortable until he left. He would also have signed better players in january because in reality the window was an epic fail and that one I believe Mowbray would have had a bigger say hence Pritchard who's been a complete waste of time. The only yard stick for managers is simple.... Where were the team when you walked in the door? (Finished on 47 points under Bowyer) Where were the team when you left? Yeah we were unlikely to finish there but every other statement about his tenure is just subjective. He done better than Bowyer with terrible backing. He's done better with this squad than most, even Mowbray getting 10 points in 6 games is still only 0.06 PPG better and lets not forget the no show at Sheff Wed!! No one is 'Laying this on JE' but he is part of it. Before his last 2 wins many were calling for his head. Any one could see that things were fragile. The Albion game was a clear example of this. You contradict yourself saying he would have signed better players in January when you previously stated that you don't believe Eustace would have much say on signings. There is no evidence to show we would have finished safely up the table with him in charge. That's guess work.
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Post by bubba on Apr 1, 2024 12:44:19 GMT
As said umpteen times before, so many conclusions based on a tiny 11 game dataset, well in his first 9 game dataset we were pretty poor and had scored less than a goal per game and had a couple of no shows in Watford and especially Norwich, so which dataset is more reliable and which would have been more representative of the whole season had he stayed in charge?
The answer is easy, whatever you want it to be.
The actual truth is nobody knows so we 're left with opinions but even that last wba game had more than a touch of good fortune about it (thanks ref) because we looked like we were heading for defeat approaching the halfway mark.
I've got no axe to grind wth Eustace, nice enough guy but he gets far more credit for where we were after 11 games than he's due, look at the table after 11 games the season before, Reading were higher than us and got relegated, QPR were up there and only just stayed up, it really means very little. Look at the table after 10/11 games in ANY season and you'll find plenty of similar tales, it means next to nothing. Some teams like Leicester come out of the traps quick winning 10 of first 11 games, others are slow, short term injury situations, shit refs, bad luck, good luck all have a bearing. 11 games is a tiny tiny sample size, it would be unwise to put too much store by what the table says after eleven games.
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Post by supacragg on Apr 1, 2024 12:54:32 GMT
Releasing Long was a big mistake. Admittedly, I don’t know the circumstances around his release to the MLS club but I feel it was very shortsighted. He even made Sanderson look decent.
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Post by dutchblue on Apr 1, 2024 13:41:31 GMT
11 games is quite a long stint as a Blues manager these days.
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Post by dutchblue on Apr 3, 2024 18:32:15 GMT
Latest Opta relegation probabilities, for those interested. Monday’s result had a pretty big impact…computer says “still far from out of it” - but those 3 points were (obviously) really crucial.
Rotherham 100% Sheff Wed 73% Huddersfield 52% —————————— Blues 31% Plymouth 22% —————————— Millwall 8% Blackburn 7%
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Post by brightside on Apr 3, 2024 19:27:08 GMT
We absolutely are really well up to our necks in it. Anyone thinking that the Preston result has changed things significantly better shake their heads about 5pm on Saturday.
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Post by bubba on Apr 3, 2024 19:49:39 GMT
I had a sneaky suspicion Blackburn might win at Sunderland, not so emphatically but the black cats despite winning their previous game have been on a long poor run and have nothing left to play for. Conversely I didn't see Plymouth losing at home to Bristol, was sure they'd win that and one of the very few times in recent weeks where a result has really surprised in our favour, there's been plenty the other way. Though now they go and change manager and possibly add another twist but I am a little surprised they are now rated a better survival bet than ourselves. I wouldn't give anybody below Swansea a hall pass on relegation, most are capable of stringing 3 or 4 bad results in a row together, that's why they're all down there.
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Post by gammo on Apr 3, 2024 20:57:18 GMT
Thankfully they haven't appointed Warnock 😄 (although he has said he would have taken the job if it had been offered to him). Time will tell if sticking with someone as manager that was already at the club (Venus?) instead of bringing someone in (Rowett?) is the best move for them or a total disaster (I think Warnock would have been the better option but that ship has sailed for them).
They still have promotion chasing Hull & Leicester to play as well as relegation threatened Millwall, Stoke, Rotherham, and QPR - there's no guarantee of picking up any points in that lot. However, if they get anything from those teams at the bottom (bar Rotherham) it'll help our survival chances.
All still to play for and could go down to the wire.
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